ROUHANI WINS!

  BEHROOZ GHAMARI  

In my last blog I said that on a good day Rouhani might even win the absolute majority and become the president in the first round. Well, it was a good day and he did win in a landslide. Here are some numbers for those of us who don’t believed anything unless it is quantified:

Participation: 72% (36 million out of 50 million eligible voters)

Rouhani: 50.70%

Qalbaf: 16.5%

Jalili: 11.3%

Reza’ei: 10.5%

Velayati: 6.1%

Gharazi: 1.2%

Invalid votes (known in the US as “hanging chads”): 1.2 million

Participation was so unanticipated that the government had to extend the voting hours three times.

By all measures, this was a surprise election, both in terms of participation rate as well as the fact that it produced a winner in the first round in a 6-way race. I think more than the shock of winning, it is the shock of losing that defines the outcome of this election, the shock of losing so dismally, that is, for the Supreme Leader.

Four years ago, in his Friday sermon a week after the disputed 2009 election, Ayatollah Khamenei openly endorsed Ahmadinejad and admitted to the rift that existed between himself and Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani. 

In his sermon, Rafsanjani defended the Green Movement and chastised the same government behind which the Supreme Leader threw his full support for suppression of dissent and mismanagement of the nation’s affairs. That was the last time Rafsanjani was permitted to address a Friday prayer.

When he was disqualified from running for presidency, Rafsanjani endorsed Hassan Rouhani, a moderate cleric with unimpeachable credentials as a loyal politician. Whereas Rafsanjani devised a clear strategic plan to restore his political authority, Khamenei and his conservative principlist allies struggled to put together a joint platform and a winning strategy to maintain their hold of the highest executive office.

First they formed the 2+1 in order to defend principlist conservatism from Ahmadinejad deviations and revisionism. The goal was to generate some momentum for a new alternative to the madness of Ahmadinejad without abandoning his populism and uncompromising, confrontational politics. Then Saeed Jalili entered the scene and every one thought that he will be the Supreme Leader’s “real Man.” But then, some others opined that Jalili might operate as Ahmadinjead’s Trojan Horse and must be stopped before getting inside the Supreme Leader’s quarters. The last minute effort to gather support for Velayati as the “establishment’s candidate,” also bore no fruits.

Many commentators repeated the tired rhetoric that the elections in Iran are meaningless and are merely performances to endow legitimacy to the wishes of the Supreme Leader. Despite the fact that the Supreme Leader himself could not identify whom he favored among the eight candidates, the hawkish Iranian opposition and their Western supporters believed peoples’ vote to be irrelevant.

There are two big losers in this election. First: The Supreme Leader, who made the grave mistake of endorsing the policies of Ahmadinejad, thus turning the election into a referendum on himself.  

Velayati, the Supreme Leader's trusted adviser, ended his race with a meager 6% of the vote!

Second: Those who pursue a regime change in Iran and believe that “crippling sanctions” (in the best case scenario) or “military intervention” (the worst case scenario) will eventually force Iranian people to rise up against the Islamic Republic and topple the regime. Every time there is an election in Iran, they repeat the same mistake that people will not participate and thereby will delegitimize the regime.

What exactly people have voted for is generally clear. Rouhani’s campaign successfully linked the economic crisis in the country (high inflation rate, unemployment, devaluation of the Iranian currency) to the current administration’s incompetence both in terms of economic planning as well as their confrontational and provocative international policy (mostly on the nuclear negotiations). The United Nations and the United States sanctions against Iran have exacerbated already difficult economic conditions in the country. For years Ahmadinejad argued that his administration welcomes these sanctions because they will lead to more innovation and less dependence on foreign powers. Neither happened.

Next to an international détente, Rouhani also stroke a similar chord when during the debates he argued that the best assurance against economic corruption and mismanagement is a free press and the freedom of expression. Easing of social restrictions and the protection of civil liberties are going to be more challenging for the Rouhani administration as he also has the backing of many social conservatives whose political capital is going to be a major asset in delivering his campaign promises.

Next month, right after Rouhani officially begins his presidency, will also be the beginning of disillusionments. I remember when I was in Iran in 2005, only a few weeks after Ahmadinejad was elected, in every little corner people were complaining that he has not delivered his campaign promises! Although I had not voted for him, I found myself defending him asking those who voted for him to give the man a chance. Whenever I hear that people are disillusioned, my first reaction is to wonder what their illusions were. Those who expect Rouhani to change the system of governance or to fashion a fundamental change in Iran are up for a great disappointment. He will institute incremental, piecemeal changes, nothing major, but enough to show that there indeed is a noticeable difference between who sits in the office of the president in Iran.

Only minutes after the results were announced earlier today, hundreds of thousands of Rouhani supporters flooded the streets of Tehran and other large cities. I have included some pictures from Tabriz, too.  Join the party:

SCENES FROM TABRIZ