RAFSANJANI AND MASHA’EI DISQUALIFIED

The Guardian Council announced that it will not provide reasons for its decision!

I was getting ready to write a post saying that the security and police movements in Tehran and other cities indicate that the Guardian Council is ready to disqualify Masha’ei and Rafsanjani. I was too late. The Council released the names of 8 qualified candidates at 10:30 pm local time. The rising star among these candidates is Said Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. I will say more about these candidates next time.

It seems like there are some general consensus that Said Jalili will emerge
as the front runner in the upcoming campaign.

Since yesterday, the security was tightened in Tehran and other big cities. Many of Ahmadinejad and Masha’ei supporters were arrested in small towns. The police closed the offices of the Organization of Reformist Youth first in Tehran and later in other cities across the country. Anti-riot police force was deployed in major squares in Tehran.

These anti-riot police bike riders became the most effective force in containing the
protests after the 2009 election.

The police is concerned about possible spontaneous rallies, similar to what happened after the last election in 2009, which gave rise to what became known as the Green Movement. It is unlikely that something similar to those massive protests will materialize now, but this time the security forces and prepared.

The Reformist Youth Organization was in the process of mobilizing people
for a massive participation in the election on behalf of Rafsanjani.

Khatami's meeting with the Reformist Youth at their headquarters in Tehran
The calligraphy on the wall: "I have not heard a more pleasant sound than the voice of Love."

Strategy meeting with the former president Khatami. 

This is not over, yet. The Supreme Leader might intervene in the process of vetting, but that also is unlikely. Now we need to wait and see which candidates would step aside in favor of others.

Rafsanjani is perhaps the most important living figure of the Iranian revolution. He has been the Speaker of the parliament, two times president, Chief of the Assembly of Experts, and is the Head of Expediency Council, the highest arbitration body in the Iranian political system. His disqualification in so many different ways questions the legitimacy of the regime’s past deeds. It is the end of an era: the revolution has finally devoured its last standing child.

We shall wait and see how Ahmadinejad and his supporters react to Masha’ei’s disqualification. We know for sure that a new president will take the office soon. We do not know where Ahmadinejad will be heading to after his term ends, exile, house arrest, private citizen, prison, opposition leader…? 

Front page of the government-sponosred paper Iran.
Ahmadinejad positioned himself as the main advocate of anti-corruption campaign
during his presidency. Here we see a lead story from 7 years ago about the head of a
smuggling and embezzlement ring. Now his opponents have distributed documents that
Mr. Masha'ei himself was supporting this man's operation.

Would Putin stick his neck out for Medvedev?